Saturday, May 9, 2009

The Minnesota Vikings will win the 2010 Super Bowl


(Vikings first-round pick, WR - Percy Harvin; second-round pick, RT - Phil Loadholt)

The Minnesota Vikings did well last year as they won the NFC North Division for the first time since 2004 with a 10-6 record, but they lost in the first-round of the playoffs to the Philadelphia Eagles. NFL scouts suggested that if the Vikings were to improve over the 2009 off-season, Minnesota needed to be better in three positions: wide receiver, offensive right tackle and quarterback.

After a very productive off-season, expect to hear “V-I-K-I-N-G-S, Skol Vikings, Let’s Go!” a lot next year as the Vikings make it further in the playoffs. The thought of what the Vikings could do this year should make their fans excited, show their “Purple Pride” and maybe want to start tailgating today for fun even though the NFL season doesn’t start till September.

Minnesota made it to the playoffs last year with a strong defense and arguably the best running back in the NFL, but after the addition of a new quarterback and the players the Vikings selected in the NFL draft to make their offense dangerous again, the Minnesota Vikings will take it to the next level this year and win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

When the NFL Commissioner, Roger Goddell, went up to the podium at the 2009 NFL draft to announce the 22nd pick, I was surprised the Minnesota Vikings selected the wide receiver from Florida, Percy Harvin. I was surprised with the pick not only because Harvin’s past has more baggage than Paris Hilton does at an airport, but that the Vikings head coach, Brad Childress, has been known for playing it safe and not taking risks during his years at Minnesota. Most NFL experts believed Harvin was by far the biggest “high risk, high reward” player coming into the 2009 NFL draft, so I thought for sure Childress was going to play it safe and pick the best available offensive right tackle at the moment, Michael Oher from Mississippi.

Harvin was going to be a “high risk” for any team that drafted him because of his past on and off the football field. Harvin has had durability problems on the field with his right ankle ever since his freshmen year at Florida in 2006. Even after having surgery on April 7th, 2008 to relieve the pain in his ankle he had been playing on for years, Harvin re-injured his ankle on Nov. 29th, 2008. He now has a “hole” in his ankle leaving NFL scouts questionable about his injury coming into the 2009 NFL draft. His game is based on making big plays with his athleticism and breakaway speed, but with a nagging ankle injury that will probably have to go under surgery later in his career, it would be a questionable move for any team to pick him.

Harvin also had problems off the field when he tested positive for marijuana back in February, 2009 at the NFL combine. Testing positive really hurt Harvin from being a top-10 pick because the NFL combine is where teams and scouts not only test each player’s athletic ability, but to also get to know them in person before the NFL draft. Although Harvin impressed the scouts at the combine, teams ahead of the Vikings in the draft still weren’t willing to gamble on a player that had a past with drug usage and a nagging ankle injury.

So when asked by Star Tribune columnist, Sid Hartman, why Childress picked Harvin and not right tackle, Michael Oher, Childress simply responded, “Offensive linemen can't make plays." In the end, it was Harvin’s “high reward” that overcame his baggage with his explosive speed and incredible playmaking ability that was just too good for the Vikings’ to pass up.

Hartman feels the Vikings first-round pick was a good pick because he sees a resemblance between Harvin and another guy that slipped far into the draft because of his baggage as he was selected as the 21st pick in the 1998 NFL draft, Randy Moss.

"Like Moss, Harvin was recognized as one of the best and most versatile players available in the (2009) draft… If this decision works out as well as a similar decision (that) worked regarding Moss, and if the Vikings find more offensive line help later in the draft, maybe the Harvin move will put the Vikings in the 2010 Super Bowl."

Now Harvin and Moss have more in common than most people would think, good and bad. Both were the top recruited wide receivers in the country coming out of high school, yet both of them also tested positive for marijuana at their NFL combines. Both were Associated Press All-Americans the final years at their colleges (Moss, senior at Marshall; Harvin, junior at Florida), yet both of them slipped deep into the first round at their NFL drafts because of their baggage (Moss – 21st pick; Harvin – 22nd pick). Now if history repeats itself, Harvin may have one more thing in common with Moss someday: to be one of the best wide receivers in Vikings franchise history and NFL history.

Another person that liked the Vikings pick was NFL Network’s college football expert, Mike Mayock. He highly praised Minnesota’s new wide receiver saying,

"Percy Harvin is explosive. I went down and watched him at his pro day, and I’ll tell you what, he’s a better route runner than I expected. He ran crisp routes, a ball didn’t hit the ground and he didn’t double catch one pass…it’s clear to see how talented this kid is and just how explosive he is with the ball in his hands. He is a human highlight reel. I think the addition of Harvin to the Vikings offense can help take some pressure off the quarterback and off of number 28 (Adrian Peterson)."

With picking up Harvin, Mayock added that the Vikings now have two explosive players on their roster that will scare defense coordinators across the NFL with Harvin and Peterson. At least 10 plays a game with these two players on the field will run the Wildcat formation where Harvin will snap the ball as the quarterback and Peterson will be next to him as the running back. This situation will cause many problems to opposing defenses because if they try to tackle Harvin, he will give the ball to arguably the best running back in the NFL, Peterson. The thing is if defenses pay too much attention to stopping Peterson, Harvin could keep the ball and with his playmaking ability in the open field, he could score many touchdowns next year for the Vikings.

To fill the need at right tackle, with the 54th overall pick in the second round of the draft the Vikings selected the 6’8”, 343 lbs. right tackle from Oklahoma, Phil Loadholt. How a man this huge got overlooked all the way to the 54th pick is unbelievable and shocking, but this pick leads me to the second reason the Minnesota Vikings will win the Super Bowl in 2010: it made Peterson very happy and when your franchise player is happy, watch out.

"He's a big guy and he's only going to get better and continue improving," said Peterson. "You think about him and Big Mac [Bryant McKinnie], with their size, and it's a dream for a running back."

Last year Peterson was the best running back in the NFL as he rushed for a season-high 1,760 yards with a very predictable offense, but with the addition of Loadholt at the right tackle to compliment the 6’8”, 335lbs. left tackle, Bryant McKinnie and Pro-Bowl left guard, Steve Hutchinson on the left side of the offensive line, just imagine how many yards Peterson will carry in 2009.

This season will be Peterson’s third in the NFL and in most NFL players’ and football experts’ minds, he is already the best running back in the NFL. To be as big and strong as he is at running back position at 6’1”, 217 lbs. and have the moves and speed compared to hall-of-fame running backs like Barry Sanders and Eric Dickerson, Peterson is like no other running back that the NFL has ever seen.

In his first two seasons for the Vikings, he has rushed for more yards than any other running back playing in the NFL right now with 3,101 yards. With Harvin’s playmaking ability to take some pressure off of Peterson and Loadholt’s size to complete one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Peterson could run for over 2,000 yards and be the NFL’s Most Valuable Player next season as the Vikings go on the Super Bowl. Emmitt Smith is the NFL’s all-time leader in rushing yards with 18,355 yards, but if Peterson continues to put up amazing numbers with good players around him and can stay healthy for another 10 years or so, he may own that rushing record by the end of his career.

Now over the Vikings off-season, they got the wide receiver they wanted with Percy Harvin and they got the right tackle they wanted with Phil Loadholt, but did the Vikings really get the quarterback they wanted when they got Sage Rosenfels in a trade for a fourth-round draft pick in the 2009 NFL draft? To win a NFL championship, you must have a quarterback that can lead a team because the quarterback is not only the most difficult position on a football team, but it may be one of the most difficult positions in all of sports.

In 2008, Rosenfels started six games for the Houston Texans and threw six touchdowns, ten interceptions and had a 79.5 quarterback rating. What Childress and the Vikings saw in Rosenfels must have been good enough to trade for him, but those aren’t the kind of stats that most fans would look for in a quarterback to lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl next season. Now Childress did say that going into Vikings training camp there will be no official starting quarterback, and that Rosenfels, fourth-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and second-year John David Booty are going to have to compete for the job. Once again, most Vikings fans wouldn’t expect any of those quarterbacks to lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl this year, but if I had to pick one of them, my best choice would be Rosenfels and for two reasons.

One reason is Rosenfels is the most experienced quarterback in the group being in the NFL for 8 years and has played more games (32) than Jackson (25) and Booty (0) combined. Rosenfels is 31 years old, and even though he has never played in the playoffs and Jackson did once (2008) for Minnesota, he played for two teams that were building up to consistantly playing in the playoffs with the Texans and the Miami Dolphins.

The other reason is Jackson has had his chance so many times with the Vikings to take over the starting quarterback position in the last 3 years, but hasn’t come through like Childress hoped he would. The Vikings just need a quarterback that will manage and lead Minnesota’s offense, not lose games because of costly mistakes like Jackson has done throughout his career. With Harvin, Peterson and the Vikings’ best wide receiver in 2008, Bernard Berrian to go along with a strong offensive line to protect him, I believe Rosenfels knows he has enough talent around him that he doesn’t need to make big plays to win games. Instead, he just needs to manage the offense and get the ball to his playmakers’ hands and let them win the game.

This is a similar situation to what the Chicago Bears had in 2006 when they made it to the Super Bowl. Chicago’s quarterback for that season was Rex Grossman, someone the Bears fans never imagined would lead their team to the Super Bowl in 2006, but Grossman did because of his leadership and the talent he had around him. With a solid running back with Thomas Jones, a great kickoff returner with Devin Hester and the best defense in the NFL that year lead by the 2006 defensive player of the year, Brian Urlacher, it made Grossman’s job much easier because the Bears didn’t need him to win games, just manage them. Now Grossman couldn’t lead the Bears to a championship that year because he didn’t have any outstanding playmakers to give the ball to, but Rosenfels does with Harvin, Berrian and Peterson. With a Vikings offense that has so many weapons and an experienced quarterback that can make the throws to manage and not lose games, it should be fun to watch the Vikings play this year.

The final reason I believe the Vikings will win the Super Bowl this year is because Minnesota does not have a good defense, they have one of the best defenses in the NFL. For the third year in a row in 2008, the Vikings defensive line was first in the NFL stopping the run allowing 76.9 yards per game. With the Vikings’ Pro-Bowl defensive tackles, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams shutting down their opponents rushing game and Pro-Bowl defensive end, Jared Allen causing chaos for opposing quarterbacks getting 14.5 sacks last year, it is safe to say the Vikings have the best defensive line in the NFL. The Vikings defensive secondary wasn’t as great in 2008 as they were 18th in the NFL allowing 215.6 yards per game, but it wasn’t because the secondary wasn’t good. It was more because most of the offenses in the NFL respected the Vikings run defense so much, teams just didn’t run the ball and put a lot more pressure on the secondary to make plays.

The Vikings have one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL with Antoine Winfield, who finally made it to the 2008 Pro-Bowl for the first time in his 11-year career. Winfield is not only a player than can shut down an opponent’s best wide receiver but he is an excellent tackler who was second in tackles for the Vikings in 2008 with 95 tackles, something that is unheard of in the NFL these days. With the improvement of the Vikings’ other cornerback, Cedric Griffin who was third in tackles for the Vikings last year with 91 tackles and an upcoming talent in safety, Tyrell Johnson that will replace Darren Sharper, Minnesota’s secondary will have a much better secondary in 2009.

The Vikings leading tackler in 2008 was linebacker Chad Greenway, who had his breakthrough season last year with 115 tackles and six sacks. As the other starting linebacker, Ben Leber and reserve Napoleon Harris played with Greenway for most of last season, they did well but should be even better next year with the return of their starting middle linebacker, E.J. Henderson. Henderson had a season ending injury in 2008 when he dislocated his toes in his fourth game of the year, but when he was healthy in 2007, he was the leading tackler for the Vikings with 118 tackles. With their experienced veteran, Leber and upcoming star, Greenway alongside a healthy leader, Henderson, the Vikings’ linebacker crew could be one of the best in 2009 and for many years to come in the NFL.

As a result from getting the players they needed in the off-season, the Minnesota Vikings will win the Super Bowl in 2010 with a very talented, balanced team that has arguably the best running back in the NFL and one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Vikings accomplished what they wanted at the wide receiver position with taking a risk and drafting Percy Harvin. Childress usually doesn’t go after players with the baggage that Harvin has with injuries and marijuana problems, but the Vikings’ owner, Zygi Wilf, knew that Peterson needed help on offense and picking Harvin with his explosiveness was a move that had to be made.

"We have to strike when the iron is hot, and feel right now is the time to do it. We're very happy to get a game of his caliber and his ability."

The Vikings accomplished what they wanted at the right tackle position when they drafted 6’8”, 343 lbs. Phil Loadholt. Not only is he a massive man, but with Loadholt, left tackle, Bryant McKinnie and left guard, Steve Hutchinson on the Vikings offensive line, Minnesota now has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The Vikings had chances in the off-season to trade for franchise quarterbacks like Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb or Denver’s Jay Cutler (who actually got traded to the Chicago Bears), but to get those players the Vikings would have had to give up their first and second round draft picks in the 2009 NFL draft. If they gave up those picks, Minnesota would not have been able to draft Harvin or Loadholt. So if you think about it, the Vikings also accomplished what they wanted at the quarterback position for right now with Sage Rosenfels because the Vikings got him for a fourth-round draft pick and still got to draft Harvin and Loadholt to make their offense better. The Vikings don’t need a superstar quarterback like Tom Brady to win games for Minnesota, they just need a quarterback that can manage the offense and get the ball to his playmakers; Peterson, Berrian and now Harvin to win games for the team.

Those moves to make the Vikings’ offense more explosive will really benefit Peterson. He hasn’t had much help on offense in his first two years in the NFL, yet he still has run for 3,101 yards. With the addition of Harvin, who can run the Wildcat formation and has the ability to score a touchdown every time he touches the ball like Peterson, there is a good chance Peterson will have his best season of his career in 2009 and maybe the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. With the return of linebacker Henderson and the best run-stopping defensive line in the NFL of Allen, P. Williams and K. Williams, the Vikings defense will be even better than last year which is pretty scary for other NFL teams. The Vikings are not just an average team anymore that will make it to the playoffs every five years, they are now a great team what will consistently make it far in the playoffs for many years to come and this year in particular Minnesota will win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

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