Friday, November 13, 2009

How 'Bout Them Vikings! - Offense

A look at how the Minnesota Vikings have done so far on offense and how far they could go entering the second half of the season.

Going into week 10 of the 2009 NFL season, the Minnesota Vikings have a 7-1 record and a comfortable three-game advantage over the Green Bay Packers as they lead the NFC North Division. Adrian Peterson is having another phenomenal season, the defense is dominant and some guy by the name of Brett Favre is having a pretty good season. Friday, I will give a grade for how the Vikings' offense was for the first half of the season. Sunday, I will give a grade for how the Vikings' defense was for the first half of the season. Next Sunday, I will view how the second half of the season will go for Minnesota, predict how far they could go and what could prevent the Vikings from winning Super Bowl XLIV.

Vikings 1st half of the season:

Offense: A-

Before the 2009 NFL season began, I knew two things about the Vikings' offense:
  • Adrian Peterson was not only going to have another Pro Bowl season, but maybe even a MVP season.
  • With arguably the best left side in the NFL in tackle Bryant McKinnie and guard Steve Hutchinson and 6'8", 345 lbs. rookie tackle, Phil Loadholt to compliment the right side, Minnesota's offensive line was going to be one of the best in the NFL.

Unfortunately, if Minnesota was going to be a more balanced offense and go farther in the playoffs this season, they needed a better passing game and a better right side of the offensive line. The position the Vikings' needed an improvement the most from was a quarterback that could lead the team and take pressure off of Peterson. After eight games into the season, I believe the Vikings are now a scary offense for defenses to defend and I'll tell why:

QB - Brett Favre: Did anybody really believe Favre was going to be this good? Who really thought Favre was going to be a mid-season MVP candidate this season? I sure didn't think so. He is 40 years old, had a terrible second half of last season with the New York Jets where he started to show his age and after having just three weeks of training camp to gel with the team, I thought Vikings' coach Brad Childress was taking a huge risk bringing Favre to Minnesota. Childress has had a past for not taking risks, but getting Favre was exactly what the Vikings offense needed. Just look at Favre's stats so far this season:

  • Favre has thrown for 1925 yards, completing 174 out of 256 passes with a 68% completion average.
  • Favre has the second most passing touchdowns (Schaub & Brees, 17) in the NFL with 16 TDs and out of all the quarterbacks that have started every game this season for their teams, he has the least amount of interceptions in the NFL with 3 INTs.
  • Favre has the second highest quarterback rating (Brees, 106.1) in the NFL with a 106.0 rating.

Minnesota's wide-receiver targets are playing better than ever now as players are emerging as weapons for Favre to throw to. Minnesota's passing game has not been this explosive since 2004 when Randy Moss was still a Viking, and has been productive with young receivers like:

WR - Sidney Rice: There may have been some players on the Vikings offense that were going to do well this year with Favre added to the team, but Rice's emergence has been the biggest surprise for Minnesota's offense this year. He has gone from a fourth-option wide-receiver in 2008 to arguably Favre's favorite target the first half of this season in 2009. Here are his stats:

  • In Rice's first two seasons of his career (26 games), he had a total of 537 yards, 46 receptions and eight TDs. In his first 8 games this year, he already has 585 yards, 37 receptions and two TDs.
  • Going into the 2009 season, Rice never had a 100-yards plus game. He has had two of them this year.
  • In 2009, Rice leads the Vikings in receptions (37), yards (537) and yards per catch average(15.8).

WR - Percy Harvin: Rice may be the biggest surprise this season, but Harvin has been the biggest addition (besides Favre of course) to Minnesota's offense this year. People knew Harvin could do it all coming out of college whether it was catching the ball, running the ball or being a kick-off returner, but how good he has been at the NFL level this season has left him as the clear favorite for the 2009 Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Just look at his impressive stats:

  • Harvin leads all NFL rookies in 2009 with 369 receiving yards, 28 receptions and three TDs.
  • As a kick-off returner, Harvin leads the NFC with an average of 30.7 yards per return and two kick-off TDs, leaving him a great chance to go to the Pro Bowl as a rookie at the end of this season.

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe: After having his best season in 2008, some people thought Shiancoe's stats were a fluke and would have a disappointing season in 2009. Boy were they wrong. Shiancoe reminds me of what Bubba Franks was for Favre in his days at Green Bay, because he may not get many receptions per game, but is very productive with scoring touchdowns in the red-zone. He is one of the best tight ends in the NFC this year, and this is why:

  • Shiancoe has just 22 receptions and 209 yards so far this season, but he is a touchdown machine as he leads the Vikings with six TDs.
  • Shiancoe not only leads the Vikings, but when it comes to tight-ends in the NFL, he is tied for second in TDs (Davis, 7).

Then it comes to Minnesota's running game, still one of the most dangerous in the NFL. Statistically, the running game has been down a little compared to last season, but it is because of how balanced the Vikings's offense has been in 2009. Here is a look at one of the NFL's best running back combos:

RB - Adrian Peterson: I do not care if Peterson is third in the NFL in rushing yards right now in the season, he is hands down the best running back in the NFL. I believe I can say this because if you asked any defender in the NFL to pick which RB they would least like to play against in a game, it would not be this years rushing leaders Chris Johnson or Cedric Benson, it would be Peterson. His stats still are one of the best when it comes to RBs this year, just in different ways:

  • Peterson respectively is third in NFL with 784 rushing yards, setting him on pace to run for over 1,500 rushing yards by the end of the season.
  • Although he doesn't have as many yards by this time last season, Peterson's yardage per carry in 2009 is 4.8, the exact same as it was in 2008.
  • Last year Peterson only had ten rushing TDs, but just 8 games into the 2009 season he already has ran for nine TDs, third-highest in the NFL.
  • Peterson's biggest improvement this season has been his passing game. After just 21 receptions for 125 yards and no TDs in 2008, he has already caught 19 passes and 189 yards in 2009. Peterson still hasn't scored a passing TD this year, but expect that to change as the year goes on with how well Favre is playing.
  • Even though this should never be a problem with how much of a beast he is, Peterson this year only has 2 fumbles, a major improvement to the 9 fumbles he had last year.

RB - Chester Taylor: Probably the best back-up running back in the NFL that has been lost under Peterson's shadow, Taylor has made the most of what he can this year for the Vikings as a third-down running back. Look at his stats for the first half of the season:

  • Taylor has 209 receiving yards in 2009, the fourth-highest for the Vikings this season.
  • Taylor has 22 receptions in 2009, also the fourth-most for the Vikings this season.

#1 Stat: Vikings average 30.5 points per game

In 2008, the Vikings scored an average of 23.7 points per game. In the first 8 games of the 2009 season, the Vikings have scored an average of 30.5 points per game. That is an improvement of 6.8 points a game, almost a full touchdown more than last seasons average. That is huge. The scary thing for Vikings' opponents is that Minnesota's best wide receiver last year, Bernard Berrian, has not really had a great game so far this season. That is why I gave an A-, instead of an A to grade the Vikings offense so far this season. If the Vikings can find a way to use Favre's strong arm and Berrian's speed to score more long touchdowns, the Vikings could average even more than 30.5 points by the end of the season.

Also, I believe that Peterson will have a better second half of the season running the ball because their opponents so far have focused on stopping Peterson, and making Favre win the game which hasn't worked with the Vikings' 7-1 record. Now, I think some defenses will respect Favre's arm and not focus on Peterson so much. If teams try to stop Peterson from running the ball, Favre with his young weapons will pick apart any defense which they showed against a good Baltimore Ravens team. If teams try to stop Favre's passing game, Peterson, the best running back in the NFL will destroy any defense that tries to match him up one-on-one, just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay. Either way, the Vikings offense will cause problems for any defense as Minnesota goes on to win their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

1 comment:

Earl Hipp said...

I love your analysis, and am thrilled you're back writing. But after Sunday, it's kind of a moot point now. Season's bout over.

Sad to see such a great career for a great QB end this way too.