Sunday, June 8, 2008

NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Lakers - Prediction

The NBA Finals is finally here, where people across the world watch the best team in the Western Conference play against the best team in the Eastern Conference for an eventful two weeks and compete for a World Championship. Every NBA Finals is unique in its own way, but this year it's extra special because it brings back the best rivalry in basketball history: The Boston Celtics vs. The Los Angeles Lakers. Russell vs. Chamberlain. Magic vs. Bird. Kobe vs. Garnett? If that doesn't cause goosebumps just hearing those names, I don't know what will. These two teams will meet for the 11th time in NBA Finals history, so you better buckle your seat belt folks because we are in for another exciting series.

I have discussed about both teams' starters, benches and coaches and am ready to predict who will win the 2008 NBA Finals. I believe the Boston Celtics will be World Champions in six games for five reasons...

1. Home Court Advantage - The Celtics had the best record in the NBA this season, leaving Boston with home court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. The Celtics were 35-6 at home during the regular season and 10-1 at home in the playoffs, so as long as Boston wins all their home games in this series and they will be World Champions.

2. The NBA Finals Schedule - In the first three rounds, the 7-game series schedule is 2-2-1-1-1, but for the NBA Finals the schedule is switched to 2-3-2. Now some NBA analysts think this is not fair to Boston's home court advantage because all Los Angeles needs to do is win one of the first two games on the road and win the next three games at home but I think differently. I believe that Boston will win their first two games at home because the Celtics are 10-1 at home in the playoffs. I also believe since Boston beat the Detroit Pistons twice on the road in the Eastern Conference Finals, they will beat Los Angeles at least one game on the road. In doing so, that will leave the Celtics ahead of the Lakers at the worst 3-2, with two games back at home (if needed) to win just one game for a World Championship.

3. Defense Wins Championships - During the 2008 regular season, Boston's defense allowed the second fewest points per game with 90.3 points while Los Angeles' offense scored the fourth most points per game with 108.6 points. Although the Lakers have the 2008 Most Valuable Player with Kobe Bryant and the Celtics have the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year with Kevin Garnett, Bryant has not played against the best defense in the playoffs yet. The Lakers have to continue to score over 100 points every game if they are going to beat the Celtics, but Boston has only allowed 100 or more points just five times in their 20 games during the playoffs. It has been proven time and time again in the NBA Finals that defense wins championships, just ask the defensive-minded San Antonio Spurs who have won four championships in the last nine seasons.

4. History Repeats Itself - Prior to this series, Boston and Los Angeles have met each other in the NBA Finals 10 times and the Celtics have dominated the Lakers, 8-2. Going back to the 1969 NBA Finals, the Celtics were starting to age and the (69-13) Lakers were the favorites to beat Boston with the best player in the NBA, Wilt Chamberlain on their team. Boston ruined Los Angeles' remarkable season as they upset the Lakers with a strong defensive plan lead by Bill Russell to slow down Chamberlain. Almost 40 years later, Boston and Los Angeles are in a similar situation. The Celtics are starting to age and most NBA analysts believe the Lakers are the favorites to win the NBA Finals this year with the best player in the NBA, Bryant on their team. So if history repeats itself, the Celtics will go at the Lakers with a strong defensive plan lead by Garnett to slow down Bryant and win Boston their 17th World Championship.

5. Experience - Besides Bryant and Derek Fisher's 3 championships, the farthest the rest of Los Angeles' players have gone in the playoffs is the first round. Boston's Sam Cassell and James Posey already have won a world championship, and P.J. Brown and the Boston PGA (Paul Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen) Tour have made it to a Conference Finals series at least once. I think Los Angeles will win World Championships in the near future because they are a young, talented team with Bryant as their leader, but right now the Lakers' youth may be more of a weakness than a strength when they play an experienced team like Boston. Experience overcomes youth any day because when it comes to the NBA Finals, all the little things like making clutch free throws, playing team defense and limit turning the ball over can determine whether a team will win or lose a championship.

This series is the beginning of an old rivalry between the Celtics and Lakers in the NBA Finals, so you better get your popcorn ready because its time to watch the show.

My Overall Prediction: Boston Celtics

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